With the obesity epidemic sweeping our nation by the thousands, health professionals have been as busy as ever and the media industry has followed not too far behind. The introduction of weight-loss reality shows took America by a storm. Most found it preposterous and controversial; they viewed it as an excuse to ridicule obese people and overwhelm them with shame in order for them to lose weight. However, considering the health benefits that these morbidly obese individuals could potentially benefit from, including dear life itself, could shame and humiliation be the solution to their lifelong struggle? Concepts from game theory will help answer this question.

According to Yale economics professor, Barry Nalebuff, if people “put themselves in a position that they don’t want to be in… they can take the action to rescue themselves”. This tactic is called the credible-threat theory, a contribution to the development of game theory, which Thomas Schelling of University of Maryland partially owes for winning him the Nobel Prize. The theory states exactly what it sounds it to be; a threat will only work if it is convincing and if there is absolutely no uncertainty that it will happen. Credible-threat theory was applied to the Cold War nuclear arms race where neither Russia nor America used a nuclear weapon because nuclear retribution would be guaranteed. This same theory was applied to a “Primetime” television news experiment that challenged overweight “players” to lose 15 pounds in two months. In this case the players would be the participants and the television network .The team was given a contract to sign stating that if this goal was not met, embarrassing pictures of themselves in tiny bathing suits would be seen on TV and posted all over the internet therefore their pay-offs would be to either lose 15 pounds or nation-wide humiliation. The participants either had a choice to lose or not lose the weight but according to the theory, so long as there is no doubt that the consequences would ensue; the individuals would shed at least 15 pounds. In this case, the contract had strong enough credibility to cause all participants to be successfully threatened.

The theory proved valid for the test was an overall success with only two members just falling short of losing 15 pounds. The contract had strong enough credibility to allow participants to believe that if they did not reach their goal, humiliating pictures would be exposed. “Primetime” however commended their hard work and decided to save the two individuals’ embarrassments and not to expose the incriminating pictures. This article got me thinking; could credible-threat theory be the future beacon of weight-loss?

http://abcnews.go.com/Primetime/Story?id=1725982&page=2