Circular Mills and Information Cascades

Information cascades occur very often in nature.  One typical example is the case of army ants.  Throughout their history forager ants developed an evolutionary trait whereby, when separated from the group of other forager ants, one ant chooses a random direction and the other “lost” ants simply follow the ant in front of them.   Eventually, the army of ants ends up in what is called a “circular mill,” or a large circle of ants.  Some mills can reach up to a 1,200 foot circumference (with a lap time of 2 ½ hours) and will continue until the ants collapse and die or a group accidentally stray from the circle. 

This type of behavior can be exhibited in humans also.  The following article describes several examples that we observe in everyday life.  Information cascades are everywhere around us:  imagine fads like Tamagotchi and Pokemon, the housing market bubble, and fashion trends.  While obviously information cascades such as these do not result in death as with the circular mill, they can sometimes be very harmful.  When cascades collapse, people can lose millions in situations such as failed investments or real estate ventures.  Since they are so easy to trigger, we often get caught up in them without even realizing it.  It is important to make sure that people are properly informed in their decision making, eventually with big decisions like buying stock.  Despite their harmful effects, information cascades are built into our genes, and we must learn ways to avoid getting caught up in herd behavior.

http://www.philippahuckle.com/ph/document.php?document=running_on_empty.

Posted in Topics: Education, General, Health

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