http://www.paulgraham.com/popular.html

As our notes state, popularity is the idea that while most things are known to an immediate circle, a few rise above and become widely accepted and/or admired by a more global community. Being a popular programming language is not different. Paul Graham writes a whole essay on what makes a programming language popular, but I will only be discussing the first two points: The Mechanics of Popularity and External Factors.

The Mechanics of Popularity discusses how a programming language must be accepted by a group of “expert hackers”, or, as Malcolm Gladwell would call them, “innovators” or possibly just “early adopters” (197). For most epidemics, these are the kinds of people who are more adventurous and willing to try something new. For programming languages, the experts “can tell a good language when they see one, and they’ll use it”. Graham notes that often these early adopters “tell other programmers what language to use,” creating the early majority that will hopefully propel the language into popularity. Obviously, one can see how network effects play a major role in programming languages. The more people and applications that use a language, the more popular it will become and hopefully stay.

The second point focuses on External Factors. Like network effects, these factors are not an intrinsic part of the programming language, but still highly influence the payoff to the users. Consequently, they greatly affect the language’s popularity. The major external factor that Graham discusses is the need for a use, specifically the need to become “the scripting language of a popular system”. As he notes, programming languages are often judged on what it is used for. Therefore, make it apply to something popular, and there’s a better chance that it will become popular.

Since programming languages have to be used by many different people, it is a much better choice to use a programming language that everyone else is using. Thus, the idea of the rich-getting-richer comes into play. If a programming language is very popular, it is probably pretty easy for it to stay popular or even increase its popularity. However, if no one uses the language, it takes a much longer time for it to gain acceptance on a large level. Thus, a new language may just need time, or as Graham puts it (in point 9), “it’s not when people notice you’re there that they pay attention; it’s when they notice you’re still there”.