http://www.slate.com/id/2095993/

The article entitled, “The Kerry Cascade,” explains how the unpopular John Kerry was able to win the Democratic presidential nomination.  However, this article takes a psychological approach at analyzing what occurred in the 2004 presidential nomination.  Psychologist Solomon Asch performed an experiment on conformity. This experiment had a group of people stare at a set of 4 lines, 2 of which were clearly the same length, while the other 2 varied greatly. The subjects were all instructed, excepting 1, to give the same incorrect answer. When the uninstructed subject was reached, s/he gave the same incorrect answer 1/3 of the time.  This social decision making experiment shows how people will conform to fit in and not be an outcast. This was used to explain how once Kerry took 1 states, the next state would obcerve the choice and the people would think that the other state knew something they did not.  This can work with politics because many people are able to vote but are not as informed as they should be, so they rely on others to persuade them.

This idea of conformity can in a way be perceived as a cascade.  One state at a time Kerry was able to form a voting cascade.  This mirrors the restaurant example, in that at first informed individuals vote.  After this, the next person makes a decision based on their signals. Now once an entire state has gone to Kerry, it seems pretty obvious that a majority of people in some area know something and other people should ignore their own signals.  The next factor is that not only do individuals form a cascade, but then states begin to cascade.  The cascade may be interrupted once in hits a predominantly red state, or a state that has such strong signals that it will not vote for Kerry no matter what.  Obviously not everyone is politically uninformed, and cascades within a state may lead to other outcomes.  But depending on which candidate a state decides on first, a few extra states may be swung over to agree than would have originally; once that happens, a few more might be captured, and then a few more…