http://www.reason.com/news/show/33643.html

This article talks about information cascades in military intelligence, which is partly the reason that certain events could not have been predicted or “wrong” decisions were made – when thinking ex-post. A few examples the author uses are the inability to prevent 9/11 with vague warnings, the situation with “yellowcake uranium,” and deadly aluminum tubes Sadam was going to use for centrifuges. Robert Anton Wilson, in the SNAFU principle, says that the reason for this is because subordinates tend to tell their superiors what they like to hear. The higher up you go in the hierarchy, the more distorted information gets. A problem with “accountability” in information work is that you will get more noticed if you dissent from the majority when the majority is correct than when you dissent from the majority when they are wrong. Therefore, playing follow-the-leader becomes a rational strategy. Since we all have limited time and information, following the majority in some cases makes sense, but sometimes you have to rethink of whether it is a good idea.

Information cascades that we learned about in class seem to be a big factor of the “mess ups” of the government. It is because after enough people make a choice, you begin to question your own choice because if enough people choose something you think they all can’t be wrong. Therefore, you ignore your own information and begin to switch choices - if that is where the majority lays. This becomes the problem in military intelligence, but their reasoning also involves the “accountability” factor of getting something wrong. If the majority also gets it wrong, you hardly get notice. Therefore to keep yourself under the radar, it is “better” to just follow-the-leader. Like the author said, it is not always bad to ignore your own signals and enter an information cascade. For common things like picking restaurants or automobiles, playing the follow-the-leader game will not get you in trouble. It is when the situations become uncommon and more serious, is when information cascades become no trustable.