New York Poised to Join Move to Earlier Primary

Today’s discussion on information cascades brought to mind a growing trend in the upcoming 2008 election. Presidential nominees in both major political parties are traditionally decided during the primary season, and for the past few decades, the first major proving grounds for a candidate’s success (or lack thereof) have been the Iowa caucus and the New Hampshire primary.

However, one of the major criticisms of this process is that states with later primaries lose their relevance. By the time those primaries occur, the bandwagon effect has already taken hold: most of the candidates have dropped out and both parties’ remaining delegates and resources are devoted to the front-runner.

The article above focuses on New York’s motion to change its primary date to February 5, joining about 20 other states that have done the same or are considering doing so. An article examining the new development also appeared in the Boston Globe (requires subscription):

The simplest explanation for electoral momentum is that people like to vote for winners. “There are a lot of people out there who don’t follow politics all the time,” says Michael McDonald, a political scientist at George Mason University. When a candidate wins an early primary, “that’s a signal that this might be a candidate you need to look at.”

…

A study by Stephen Farnsworth of the University of Mary Washington and S. Robert Lichter of George Mason University’s Center for Media and Public Affairs showed a sharp shift in the tone of the network news coverage of Dean and Kerry after the 2004 Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries: Newscasts dealing with Dean began to fill up with negative statements about him, and Kerry coverage became distinctly more positive.

And then there’s the money. Donors, perhaps even more than voters, don’t want to back a loser. It’s a more recent phenomenon, says Mayer, “but one of the most powerful things you get out of doing well in the early going is a big infusion of funds.”

As of now, it is unclear what effect this will have on the primary season. On one hand, it could counter the information cascade scenario, in which the results from relatively few primaries decide the course of both political parties. Because of the potentially large number of states that will hold simultaneous primaries, a mixed result could keep multiple candidates in the race, many of whom would otherwise withdraw. On the other hand, and for the same reason, a strong showing by any one candidate would make that Feb. 5 one of the most decisive dates of the 2008 campaign, and the primary season would be shorter than ever.