News from the polar regions in March 2008 included many “firsts:” flights of unmanned vehicles, research during Antarctica’s “polar night,” and new insight into the polar regions from boulders, sediment cores, and other reports. Missed these stories the first time? Read on!

Last month, we reported on a fully robot astronomical observatory called PLATO. This month brings more news of technological advances in Antarctic scientific research – the first series of flights by autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The aircraft are controlled by radio for take-off and landing, but fly autonomously for the duration of the 40 minute flights. Use of these UAVs will allow scientists to gather data from previously inaccessible areas.

Researchers investigating the thinning of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) are using a new type of evidence in their studies: boulders exposed by thinning glaciers. By analyzing the amount of cosmic radiation that the boulders have been exposed to, scientists can begin to construct a long-term picture of glacial behavior in the region. Initial findings suggest that the glaciers are now thinning much more rapidly – about 20 times as fast – as they did during the preceding thousands of years. Other scientists are studying the tectonic activity of the base of the WAIS to determine if volcanic activity or crustal stretching and rifting will affect the stability of the ice sheet itself.

Research in Antarctica typically occurs from October to December. This year, however, a Montana State University scientist and his team are spending 2 ½ months during the coldest and darkest part of the year at McMurdo Station. From February to April, the team will collect data to get a more complete picture of what’s happening in the lakes and liquid water that exist under Antarctica’s glaciers, including how microorganisms adapt to the loss of light.

In the Arctic, studies continue to focus on climate change and its many impacts. A colder-than-average winter, which has continued controversy about the realities and rate of climate change, has not alleviated the perilous condition of the Arctic sea ice. While the colder recent weather conditions increased areas of new, thin sea ice, the thicker, perennial sea ice has continued to decline. This year, perennial sea ice (the long-lived, year-round layer of ice) covers less than 30 percent of the Arctic – as compared to 50-60 percent in the past. Additionally, the perennial ice is not as old as in years past, meaning that it thinner and more vulnerable to summer melting.

The decline of the sea ice is a threat to marine mammals such as the polar bear. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is currently considering a proposal to list the polar bear as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act. Reports guiding the FWS’ decision making process are largely based on climate models – mathematical models designed to forecast how climate will respond to changes such as increased levels of greenhouse gases. While many climate models exist, and all contain some degree of uncertainty, the comparison of several models can provide an understanding of long term trends. Current models predict a 40% reduction in sea ice over the next fifty years, leading to an estimated 60% reduction in polar bear populations worldwide. Scientists estimate near extinction by the end of the century.

The latest official figures from the UN Environmental Programme revealed that the world’s glaciers are melting faster than expected. Data showed that between the years 2004-05 and 2005-06, the average rate of melting and thinning more than doubled. The increased melting has the potential for serious human impact, as millions of people around the world depend on glacially fed rivers and snowmelt for drinking water, agriculture, industry, and power generation.

Climate change will affect humans in other ways as well. A recent report released by the National Research Council revealed that as the climate changes, there will be considerable impact on transportation infrastructure and operations. While coastal infrastructure was identified as the greatest risk due to flooding from sea level rise and more intense storms, other areas such as the Midwest and California are also at risk due to flooding, drier watershed conditions in the Great Lakes, and the increased chance of wildfires. The report concluded that the climate predictions currently used by transportation planners and engineers may no longer be reliable and should be reconsidered in the face of climate change.

The increasingly ice-free Arctic Ocean may also lead to armed conflict. A former U.S. Coast Guard commander writing in the March-April 2008 issue of Foreign Relations, says the ice melting that has opened the Northwest Passage for shipping for the first time may also have opened the way for a “scramble for territory and resources among the five Arctic powers.” The recommendation set forth is that as part of the International Polar Year, the United States should convene a conference to draft an agreement for managing the vast natural resources and the shipping lanes of the future.

While much time and effort has been spent predicting the future of the Arctic, the past also can provide valuable information. Research studies of ancient sediment cores in remote Alaska showed that after the last ice age, the tundra was covered with tall birch shrubs instead of the grasses, herbs, and shorter shrubs found today. Charcoal in the cores revealed that this shrub-dominated tundra burned much more frequently than modern tundra. As the climate has warmed, moisture levels have decreased, and shrubs have expanded across the world’s tundra regions. All of these factors may lead to more frequent tundra fires and the release of large quantities of stored organic carbon into the earth’s atmosphere.

While many view air pollution in the Arctic as a recent problem, a new study of historic records shows that Arctic explorers observed the “particulate haze” as early as the late 1800s. Particulate matter from coal combustion and other industrial processes in the mid-latitudes migrate to the Arctic, resulting in haze and layers of dust on the ice. Researchers speculate that the advent of the Industrial Revolution in the 1700s sparked the pollution and note that after the adoption of more efficient fossil fuel combustion in the mid 1900s, the levels of particulate pollution in the Arctic dropped. They hypothesize that recent increases may be due to higher emissions from developing countries.

Know of another significant news story from March that you’d like to share? Reactions to another of the stories discussed here? Post a comment – we’d love to hear from you!