The consequences of global warming are often predicted in terms of washed-out coastal cities, displaced populations, and changed weather patterns, but only recently have some warned of armed conflict in the icy waters around the North Pole. A former U.S. Coast Guard commander writing in the March-April 2008 issue of Foreign Relations, says the ice melting that has opened the Northwest Passage for shipping for the first time may also have opened the way for a “scramble for territory and resources among the five Arctic powers.”  

Scott G. Borgerson notes that one nation, Russia, has planted its flag on the North Pole’s sea floor. Canada is investing in new naval patrol vessels. In addition to the natural resources that may lie off the coasts of the countries surrounding the Artic Ocean, shipping shortcuts are eyed by many countries as they build fleets of icebreakers. Making the opening of the sea lanes and access to natural resources a problem is the lack of any regulations; the Artic Ocean was never expected to become a navigable waterway or a site for commercial development.  

Borgerson’s proposed solution: As part of the International Polar Year, the United States should convene a conference to draft an agreement for managing the vast natural resources and the shipping lanes of the future.