The “hope” that developing countries would install technologies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions as they became wealthier is not backed up by evidence so far. A study by researchers at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the University of Colorado warns that continuing economic and technological disparities will make it more difficult than anticipated to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and it underscores the challenges that poorer nations face in trying to adapt to global warming. 

“There is simply no evidence that developing countries will somehow become wealthier and be in a position to install more environmentally friendly technologies,” says Patricia Romero Lankao, a sociologist and lead author of the study. “We always knew that reducing greenhouse gas emissions was going to be a challenge, but now it looks like we underestimated the magnitude of this problem.”

The study shows that most industrialized and developing countries are increasing their emissions of carbon dioxide due to the demand for consumer goods. The goods often come from developing countries that are not gaining the wealth needed to adopt cleaner technology.

To determine whether developing countries are likely to become significantly more efficient, Romero Lankao and her coauthors divided 72 of the world’s more populous countries into three groups:

technologically advanced nations such as the United States (haves), emerging nations such as Thailand (have-somes), and poorer nations like Tanzania (have-nots). Using World Bank data, they based their classifications on three criteria that can influence carbon dioxide emissions: gross domestic product per capita, urban population, and population in the 15 to 65 age range. They then analyzed the economic trajectories of the selected nations from 1960 to 2006.

The team found that the economic disparity between industrialized countries and most developing ones, as measured by gross domestic product per capita, has increased since 1960 rather than converging. Furthermore, the study projects that, if present trends continue, that disparity will continue to grow for at least the next two decades.

The study also highlights the disparities in per capita emissions of carbon dioxide. Of the 72 countries analyzed, the team found that the advanced countries have a tiny share of the world’s population, yet emit 52.2 percent of total carbon dioxide emissions. In contrast, one-third of the global population lives in the have-not countries, but accounts for just 2.8 percent of total carbon dioxide emissions.

When the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released its assessment in 2007, it based some projections on the idea that many developing countries would close the economic gap and adopt efficient technologies. However, the NCAR researchers believe the poorer nations will continue to trail in economic growth longer than IPCC predicted even as they produce goods for the wealthier countries. As the income disparity grows and extends for a longer period, the increase in carbon dioxide emissions would lead to higher global temperatures.

The study is published in the journal Climate Research.