The April 7 issue of the journal Nature spotlights a research commentary article warning that we will find reducing global emissions of carbon dioxide harder to do than we have been led to believe. Two scientists from the National Center for Atmospheric Research and the University of Colorado in Boulder and an economist from McGill University in Montreal said the technological challenges of reducing carbon dioxide have been “significantly underestimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC),”

Specifically the researchers point to the IPCC’s assumption that new technologies would be developed and used, reducing the future growth of emissions even if governments do not act. Recent changes in emissions per unit of energy consumed are higher than predicted because of rapid economic development, which relies on conventional fossil-fuel technologies. Reliance on the old technologies can be expected to continue in areas, such as Asia and Africa, where economic development is growing.

Rather than seeing stabilized carbon dioxide emissions as a result of adoption of new technologies, the authors looked at a set of “frozen-technology” scenarios in which energy technologies will remain at present levels. They conclude: In the end, there is no question whether technological innovation is necessary–it is. The question is, to what degree should policy focus explicitly on motivating such innovation?”

 The IPCC is a scientific intergovernmental body set up by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and by the United Nations Environment Programme. In 2007 it was jointly awarded, with Al Gore, the Nobel Peace Prize. The National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, is funded by the National Science Foundation’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences.