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Probability

Question

If the probability of winning the lottery is so remote, why do people play?

Answer

Stephen, That is really a good question. As with any occurrence or event in the real world, we can never be absolutely sure of the outcome until after it has occurred. 'Probability' attempts to analyze the 'likeliness' that an event will occur. Many people play the lottery (or gamble) because the ROI or return-on-investment is so large. Many people give or will part with some 'material good' with the expectation of getting or gaining something back in return for their 'goods'. The ROI associated with playing and winning the lottery can be as high as 100,000,000 or 100 million times your initial outlay of one dollar ($1.00). In comparison, many bank accounts currently offer an interest rate from 3 to 4%, or in numeric terms, 0.03 to 0.04. Hence for every dollar invested you are usually guaranteed to get back or accrue one dollar and 3 cents after a certain time period, usually based on one calendar year. Compare that to 100 million dollars returned to you in with no time stipulation or condition. The advantage to the savings account however is that it is a "sure thing" despite the lower return on investment that it offers when compared with something like gambling that is NOT a "sure thing".


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